Election day is fast approaching - only two days away - and for the first time in my life I’m entitled to vote and having been interested in politics for the better half of my life, I see it as a ripe opportunity that’s not too be missed! The polling day for General Election #30 is taking place on Thursday, May 24th which just so happens to be the day of our school graduation, so time will be of the essence come Thursday morning!
I have already decided on whom I am going to vote for. My decision, I’ll admit, was influenced by personal ties that I have to a particular candidate but I certainly tried to analyse the policies and past performances by the candidates in deciding how to allocate my preference votes. So let’s run through what I think of the 13 candidates that I’ll be seeing on my ballot paper come Thursday.
Outgoing TDs
Waterford, at national level, is currently politically divided as follows: 2 FF members (Martin Cullen and Ollie Wilkinson), 1 FG (John Deasy) and 1 Lab (Brian O’Shea). Of these four candidates, 2 are expected to safely maintain their seats.
The two candidates who are safely expected to maintain their seats are Martin Cullen and John Deasy. Local bookmakers aren’t even accepting bets on them to win seats! Martin Cullen was the poll topper in 2002 (taking 18% of overall first preferences) and the only reason that I can possibly think of as to why he’s seemingly guaranteed a seat is because he’s Waterford’s one and only Minister and the general consensus is that he’s the only candidate who can actually do anything of any significance for the people of Waterford. However, given the realistic chances of the 30th Dáil being formed by an opposition coalition, I very much doubt Martin Cullen’s ability to offer anything to the Waterford people other than more of the controversy that we’ve grown so accustomed to over the past 5 years.
John Deasy is yet another controversial character. He was at one stage one of Fine Gaels finest assets who looked destined for bigger and better things but that all changed once he decided that he was above the law and could smoke inside a pub. Unfortunately for John, his party were alarmed that their spokesperson for Justice would do such a thing and his wrist was well and truly slapped as he was swiftly demoted to the FG backbenches. One of only two other notable things he has done since being elected was marrying the semi-attractive TV3 presenter Maura Derrane. The most recent act that caught the attention of the nation was a surprising act of bridge burning as he questioned the FG leadership. At that time, FG were slipping in the opinion polls so maybe he thought his remark was a shrewd political move aimed at setting himself up for the next election but since then FG have seen a surge in their support and the people seem to want a FG-led coalition. So should FG get into power, Deasy won’t find himself being rewarded for his dedication and faith in his party. The impression I get is that the people of Waterford love a rebel, someone who isn’t afraid to “stand up” (as his election posters claim), but by burning every bridge that had available to him, he merely rubber stamped his useless to Waterford in this election!
The election of Ollie Wilkinson of FF came as a big surprise to many in 2002, probably because he was elected no thanks to a plethora of outrageous claims and promises which, 5 years later, he claims to have delivered. Unfortunately for Ollie, the majority of the Waterford constituents are highly aware that there isn’t public Radiotherapy in Waterford (as he claims), we also know that the sign outside our regional college still refers to “Waterford Institute of Technology” and not the “South East University” which Ollie claims he has been playing a pivotal role in acquiring. Ollie has also sunk to the deepest level with his pre-election gimmick - Text “Ollie” to his phone and be in with a chance to win Oxegen tickets! I hope he doesn’t manage to fool the electorate this time around and if we’re lucky, not even the GAA fans will believe this chancers promise to build a 40,000 seater stadium in Waterford!
It’s been stated in many breakdowns of the Waterford Constituency that Labour’s Brian O’Shea is the candidate who is most likely to lose his seat. It is easy to see why this may be the case as he had the lowest first preference votes of the 4 elected in 2002 but managed to reach the quota on the 7th count thanks to an impressive amount of transfers from eliminated candidates. Whilst I think his first preference vote will be down, the amount of transfers he gets will increase thanks in part to an effective Labour campaign spearheaded by Pat Rabbitte which presents Labour as a viable option for government. He is also a candidate with much political experience but some may argue that as a seasoned veteran, he would be less likely to push the envelope in terms of politics for Waterford. However, I expect his experience to stand to him if the FG/Lab coalition effort is successful.
General Candidates
The rest of the candidates take the form of: 2 FG, 1 FF, 1 WP, 1 SF, 1 Green and 3 Independents. Of these, 5 are presently elected Councillors, 1 is a member of the Senate whilst 3 have had no previous election success!
Political commentators are saying that David Cullinane of Sinn Fein is in the most powerful position to launch an attack on 1 of the 2 seats that are at risk. Sinn Féin have had surprising success in recent years no thanks to their unexplainable new found wealth (I’m going to be cynical and say that the IRA probably has something to do with it). SF have made a lot of noise about Cullinane, especially about his European Election achievement (30,000 votes in Munster), however two thirds of his votes were from Waterford City which was to be expected given that he was the only candidate running from the City (I could have run and expected to have got as many votes!). I’m also not impressed by Cullinanes track record in Waterford City Council. He’s repeatedly said that he isn’t afraid to bring issues to the forefront but time after time after time, he’s shied away from controversial issues like Anti-Social behaviour and other issues within his ward which should be bread and butter! I also recently learned that he’s now living in Kilkenny but is hiding this fact from his voters. Granted, he did move there with his wife and child, but a bit of honesty wouldn’t go astray but maybe I’m being a bit naive now as history has taught us that the words ‘honesty’ and ‘Sinn Féin’ don’t go hand in hand and Cullinane isn’t what he’s billed up to be - he’s about as articulate as a deaf mute and as radical as a bucket of water!
The Workers’ Party base in Waterford has wained in recent years, but their most talented and able candidate nationally is John Halligan whose running in the General Election in Waterford for the second time. In 2002, he earned just shy of 3% of the votes but in the Local Elections of 2004, he won 18% of the vote (1,123), topping the poll - trebling his votes of the 1999 elections! John is a candidate who has gone from strength to strength in this time and is one of the most popular city candidates who has built up a deserved reputation as a fearless and dedicated politician who isn’t afraid to speak out on controversial issues. I can envisage John getting around 3,500 first preference votes, which won’t be enough to get elected this time around but will be enough to inspire him to run in the next General Election where he may very well be in a position to take a seat, depending on how well the Government performs!
In 2002, Brendan Kenneally lost his seat to his supposed party colleague, Ollie Wilkinson. Since then he has been working harder than ever to rebuild his political image and has been one of the most active politicians in the county in recent times. He’s sure to be popular in Dunmore East where he was quick to console the locals during the Pere Charles tragedy and his city vote has always been quite strong. I reckon the real fight in this election will be between Brendan Kenneally and Ollie Wilkinson as they scrap over the second FF seat!
Fine Gael are running 3 candidates in this election. John Deasy (who I have already mentioned), and Jim Darcy, Paudie Coffey both of whom are Councillors in the city and county respectively. I must admit that I don’t know much about the latter, as he is a member of the County Council but I can’t see either himself or Jim Darcy making any kind of impact on the polls.
Of the remaining candidates, Mary Roche, the Independent, has been raising a few eyebrows around the county as Waterford’s only realistic Independent option. She maintains that Independents will hold the balance of power post-election but her profile and reputation in Waterford isn’t high enough to enable her to get the first preference votes that she would need to be in with any kind of a chance.
The other options on our ballot paper will be Greens’ Brendan McCann, a man who has done himself and his party no favours thanks to his reputation of being a serial objector who is out of touch with reality. Francis Hennessy is an Independent running on the premise of abolishing underage gambling and Declan Waters is an anti-abortion Christian Democrat. I expect these candidates to poll less than 500 votes each, with the exception of Brendan McCann who should be lucky to have 1000 eco-friendly individuals vote for him.
Conclusion
Overall, I see the constituency being divided as follows:
01 - John Deasy (FG)
02 - Martin Cullen (FF)
03 - Brendan Kenneally (FF)
04 - Brian O’Shea (Lab)
—-
05 - Ollie Wilkinson (FF)
06 - David Cullinane (SF)
07 - John Halligan (WP)
08 - Jim Darcy (FG)
09 - Mary Roche (Ind)
10 - Paudie Coffey (FG)
11 - Brendan McCann (GP)
12 - Declan Waters (Ind)
13 - Francis Hennessy (Ind)
Of course with politics being politics, I should be preparing myself for any kind of surprise.
Thanks for reading,
Adam
Social